History of Science and Engineering Annotation << Back SEISMIC MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN KAMCHATKA V.V. Ivanov Since the beginning of instrumental seismological observations on volcanoes of Kamchatka in 1947, IVS FEB RAS and its predecessors studied about 150 eruptions of various types and of various sizes, including three catastrophic ones: Bezymianny in 1955–1956, Shiveluch in 1964, «The Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption» in 1975–1976 (GTFE). The original monitoring, forecasting and predicting techniques are proposed, in particular, short-term technique for prediction the beginning time and the scale of fl ank eruptions of basaltic and summit eruptions of andesitic volcanoes ac-cording to seismological data (P.I. Tokarev). During this time interval, 29 volcanic eruptions were forecasted with different delay time (days, months and years), including short-term prediction of BTFE in 1975–1976. This allowed reduce volcanic risk to public, aviation traffi c and study of the eruption from their very beginning more detailed. However, there were many «omissions goals» and «false alarms». It is shown that the short-term forecasting techniques, in some cases have a low effi ciency, which is caused not so much the shortcomings of seismic networks and data processing, as the lack of reliable links between precursors and eruptions due to the infl uence of factors, unac-counted for. A list of promising, in our opinion, recently developed in Kamchatka techniques for monitoring and forecasting are presented, including methods of complex forecast on seismological and space physical data with the effi ciency estimated of 400–800 (V.A. Shirokov, 2015). Keywords: volcano, eruption, monitoring, seismicity, instrumental observations, Kamchatka. Contacts: Е-mail: victor@kscnet.ru Pp. 85-96.