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History of Science and Engineering Annotation << Back
SEISMIC PHENOMENON AS A PROCESS OF UNSTABLE NONLINEAR STRUCTURE DESTRUCTION ON THE EXAMPLE OF KRONOTSKOE EARTHQUAKE ON DECEMBER 5, 1997 |
V.V. Bogdanov, A.V. Pavlov
In the course of increase of instability degree of an arbitrary nonlinear system and its approach to the critical state, both parameters
fl uctuation intensity and correlation time and length increase. Considering the lithosphere to be an instable nonlinear system which is under
the affected by external disturbances and develops according to a scenario of nonlinear dynamic, applying a probability-theoretical approach to Kamchatka earthquake catalogue, seismic regime changes were investigated. These changes were observed in the region along the eastern coast of Kamchatka and preceded a strong Kronotskoe earthquake which occurred on December 5, 1997 (h=10 km, K=15,5, Mc=7,7). It is shown that the Kronotskoe earthquake was preceded by correlated change of seismic regime covering east regions in which weak earthquake
(K≤14,0) intensity increased and the intensity of earthquakes in each of the considered sectors began to move in the direction of depths of 5‒10 km since 1994.
Keywords: probability, earthquake, seismic regime, wavelet analysis, nonlinear systems.
Contacts: Е-mail: vbogd@ikir.ru
Pp. 051-058. |
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